Fluid boundaries that expand and change in the compositional space of modern architecture and, equally, in the map of the world economy. Europe and Asia: the creation of a new strong link.
Boundless Ambitions
Try and imagine a modern-day Galileo Galilei at work on his “Dialogue Concerning the Two Chief World Systems” in an attempt, four hundred years on, to identify the center of gravity of the planet’s economic growth: qualifying the scale of the problem would be no small task. The frontiers of the new geography of the world economy are as fluid and as changeable as water. Long regarded as the immobile engine of cultural and economic progress of the modern age, continental Europe has been hidebound for years by an immobilism incapable of generating steady growth and development. Countries that western geo-economics continue to classify, somewhat arrogantly, as “developing” nations have now come of age. The industrialized countries that accounted for more than 60% of world GDP in 1985 today represent less than 50%; meanwhile the weight of the developing nations has gradually risen and is now close to one half of global gross product, with the Emerging Asian nations doubling their share from 15% to 30%, and China alone notching up an 11-point increase (from 4% to 15%).
More than half of world industrial production comes from the “periphery” of the world system, and if China looks set to become the world’s manufacturing center, India appears to rank number one in knowledge. This is no longer simply a question of relocation by western multinationals: what we are witnessing is the exceptional growth (or rebirth) of new economies. According to a Goldman Sachs analysis conducted in 2003 and based on a fifty-year projection – well beyond the 2020 range normally adopted in studies of this type—the BRIC economies could one day overtake Japan and the West as the world’s most important market. The future appears to belong to the emerging markets, even though the on-going weakness and volatility of their geo-political bases means their growth still displays signs of instability. The overall performance of the BRIC nations in the first four months of 2007 (Morgan Stanley) was not impressive: the joint index for the four countries gained 4.9% compared with 8.1% for the MSCI emerging markets index. Brazil and India reported growth of 15% and 10% respectively, China of only 2.5% while Russia slackened by around 5%. Nevertheless, the appeal of these countries which have made no secret of their transborder ambitions remains unchanged: the structural drivers that brought them center stage have not run out of steam yet, and even if performance will be slower than in previous years, the BRIC countries will continue to progress and to complement one another’s strengths (raw materials, energy sources, Information Technology, production) to their mutual benefit.
In this great new scenario, the main challenger to the US giant is China as it looks beyond its national borders to locate energy resources and markets in Africa and South America, and expands its sphere of influence within Asia through multilateral and bilateral economic and monetary agreements that, for the future, will make it a worthy rival of the dollar or the euro.
This issue of arcVision looks at these changing boundaries: fluid boundaries that expand and change in the compositional space of modern architecture and, equally, in the map of the world economy.
Boundaries once considered insurmountable are today a challenge to be won; in the geography of construction as in the geography of the world, deeply instilled concepts are being replaced by audacious pioneering visions that have no trouble overcoming the indeterminate boundaries created by water.
